Both Chicago teams are looking to improve this season, but the Cubs are better poised for success than the White Sox. The Cubs upped their playoff caliber squad with the signing of third baseman Alex Bregman and a trade for pitcher Edward Cabrera. On the other hand, the Sox look to get out of the basement, building off the big signing of home run hitter Munetaka Murakami from Japan.
Experts agree. According to analytics website Fangraphs, the Cubs will win their division with an 85-77 record. The Sox, meanwhile, are projected to finish last in the AL Central with a 69-93 record. Second-worst in the sport behind the Rockies.
The north side is coming off their first playoff series win since the 2017 season, winning 92 games and beating the Padres in the NL Wild Card before falling to the arch-rival Milwaukee Brewers. Outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker won awards last season, and pitcher Cade Horton finished runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year voting.
However, the Cubs lost Tucker this offseason to the Dodgers. One of, if not the biggest contributor to the Cubs’ offense last season, losing him in free agency to the reigning champions came as a massive blow.
Hope sparked after the Cubs signed Alex Bregman, the biggest free agent this offseason and perfect replacement for Tucker. Bregman had an OPS+ of 128 last season and has a career 43.1 WAR. However, this leaves Matt Shaw out of a starting position at third, needing to find another spot on the field if he wants to keep a starter role.
Pitching has been a problem for the Cubs, and it will dictate how their season will go. Last season, the team saw star pitcher Justin Steele fall to elbow surgery. Horton stepped up and led pitchers with a 2.67 ERA. Horton needs to maintain that form as Steele isn’t expected back until May.
More pieces were lost in pitchers Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz signing elsewhere. But on the flip side, Edward Cabrera, a young star who has shown promise, was acquired in a trade with the Marlins. Cabrera has a history of injuries, though, including an elbow strain last season.
Trying to avoid their fourth straight 100-loss season, the Sox made some of the biggest moves this offseason. They won the Munetaka Murakami lottery, signing the Japanese superstar to a 2-year, $34 million contract. He spent eight seasons in the Japan Central League, posting a .392 OBP and .951 OPS in that stretch. Murakami, a power bat who gets on base, is the fourth big name Japanese player to join the Sox.
The team also traded their star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets for infielder Luisangel Acuña, a promising young player. Last season saw the debut of shortstop Colson Montgomery, who led the team with 3.3 WAR. Catcher Kyle Teel also made his debut, and was on a 4 WAR 162-game pace.
The addition of Murakami should help the Sox on offense, but Montgomery and Teel must continue showing promise to really get the offense going. Acuña didn’t have an outstanding career as a Met, with a career OPS+ of 82 and a WAR of 1.1, but will hopefully improve with a change of scenery.
To help their pitching, the Sox picked up a reclamation project with Anthony Kay. In his two-year MLB absence, Kay posted a 1.74 ERA in Japan. The South Siders also brought back Erick Fedde, who played for the Sox in 2024. Fedde had a 5.49 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP last year. The Sox have to turn their careers around if they’re to positively contribute.
Kay’s addition could work out if the team can find a way to transfer his success in Japan to the majors. Only pitching 14.2 innings with a 6.14 ERA last he saw MLB competition may indicate it is a tall task.
Fedde hasn’t done much in his second stint in the big leagues. A 3.30 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in 2024 led to regression the next year, with a 5.49 ERA and WAR of -0.6. It’s unlikely the rebuilding Sox revive a career that’s never gotten off the ground.
The Sox need to improve all around and build off the offensive success of last season’s rookies. The North Siders’ offense, although bolstered by Bregman, will have to make up for Tucker’s departure. Keeping their pitching afloat will be crucial in doing that. If the teams’ new signings and young stars can manage those things, Chicago fans should be hopeful this upcoming season.
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